Tuesday, 13 December 2011

STEROIDS

Beware of ETFs on Steroids

The tools traders use to play the market are getting more powerful—and potentially dangerous. Investors have long been able to buy leveraged ETFs, exchange-traded funds that aim to magnify the daily returns of the indexes they follow. On Dec. 1, Direxion Funds upped the ante by converting its “two-times” funds to provide triple the return of the indexes they track. Supersizing has been good business for Newton (Mass.)-based Direxion, which offers more than 40 leveraged ETFs, up from eight three years ago, according to Chief Marketing Officer Andy O’Rourke. Yet some critics say the pumped-up investment vehicles are adding to daily volatility and scaring off general investors from the market.

Laurence D. Fink, chairman of BlackRock (BLK), the world’s largest asset manager, has called leveraged ETFs “toxic.” At an investor conference on Nov. 16, Fink said he was surprised that some were approved by U.S. regulators. He compared them to the financial engineering of complex securities that ultimately led to the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market. “I do believe we have some responsibility for making sure that the market does not morph itself, the same way when I started in the mortgage market 35 years ago, watching a great market morph into a monster,” he said.



ETFs are baskets of securities that track an index and trade throughout the day like stocks. Leveraged ETFs use derivatives such as options and futures to deliver a multiple of the daily return of an index. Another variety, leveraged inverse ETFs, seeks to give some multiple of the opposite return for an investor who wants to bet against the market. ProShares’ UltraShort Financials ETF aims to move twice as much as, and in the opposite direction of, the Dow Jones U.S. Financial Index. If that index falls 2 percent, the fund is designed to rise 4 percent. If the index gains 3 percent, the fund should fall 6 percent.

ETFs account for 35 percent to 40 percent of trading on U.S. stock exchange volume, according to research firm Morningstar (MORN). While leveraged and inverse funds make up just 3 percent of ETF assets, they account for 14 percent of total ETF trading, and investors hold leveraged and inverse ETFs for an average of three days, compared with 16 days for plain-vanilla ETFs, Morningstar says. Sharon Snow, chief executive officer of Metropolitan Capital Strategies, a $100 million ETF-based asset manager in Manassas, Va., credits leveraged and inverse ETFs with helping the firm achieve 10 percent annualized returns over the past five years. “We love them and use them as they are intended, as short-term trading vehicles,” she says. “They help you be tactical and manage risk.”

Critics contend that ETFs exacerbate market swings by lumping into one security assets that are alike but not the same. In the past, buying 50 stocks required 50 decisions, now it’s just one. In September, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission was looking into whether amplified ETFs contributed to the market’s unusual volatility in August. The SEC declined to comment for this story. In an October Senate Banking subcommittee hearing, Senator Jack Reed (D-R.I.) said critics have referred to leveraged ETFs as “new weapons of mass destruction that are turning the market into ‘a casino on steroids.’ ” Others, he said, “believe they are a more efficient, modern, and tax-advantaged method of investing.”

Eileen Rominger, director of the SEC’s Investment Management Div., told the panel that since March 2010 the staff has deferred approval of new ETFs that make heavy use of derivatives while it examined their effect on market volatility and other issues. (Companies that had approvals already are able to bring out new ETFs.) In August 2009 the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and the SEC issued a warning to retail investors about the risks associated with leveraged ETFs—including the possibility of large losses and poor tracking of the underlying index over longer periods because the funds are designed to generate their targeted return over a single trading day.

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Saturday, 10 December 2011

The agri-business

A cautionary announcement by fruit marketing and logistics services group Capespan late last month certainly got tongues wagging in the Western Cape agri-business sector .


The announcement was released shortly after news that the major shareholder, Total Produce Plc, had increased its stake in the unlisted company from 15% to 20%. (See FM Fox November 25.)
Total Produce is now the second largest shareholder in Capespan. It is wedged between PSG-controlled Zeder (with over 40%) and Brian Joffe’s Bidvest (around 7%), which have both begun to build major equity positions in the company. Initial speculation centred on possible developments among Capespan’s three major shareholders. Some market watchers even punted a possible JSE listing .

Some might view an acquisition as a damp squib compared with the three- way tussle for influential shareholdings in Capespan. But even a small acquisition would serve to remind investors that Capespan, now headed by former Senwes boss Johan Dique, is a business in transition. There is much talk about the potential of the company’s logistical services in ports and inland terminals (which is probably why Bidvest, with strong logistics leanings, is chasing Capespan).

Dique turned an ailing Senwes into one of SA’s strongest agri-businesses between 2000 and 2010. He has been widely tipped to bring operational traction to Capespan.
Over the past decade, its performance has been inconsistent.
The smart money will be betting on Dique making a bolt-on acquisition for the logistics division in a bid to offer clients integrated logistics services.
Last month Capespan — which has an inferred market value of around R800m — sharpened its focus on its fruit marketing and logistics services when it sold off fruit technology business ExperiCo to Farmsecure Agri Science.








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Friday, 09 December 2011

Learn one or two things about the RSA economy

South Africa is a middle-income, emerging market with an abundant supply of natural resources; well-developed financial, legal, communications, energy, and transport sectors; a stock exchange that is the 18th largest in the world; and modern infrastructure supporting a relatively efficient distribution of goods to major urban centers throughout the region. At the end of 2007, South Africa began to experience an electricity crisis. State power supplier Eskom encountered problems with aged plants, necessitating "load-shedding" cuts to residents and businesses in the major cities. Growth was robust from 2004 to 2007 as South Africa reaped the benefits of macroeconomic stability and a global commodities boom, but began to slow in the second half of 2007 due to the electricity crisis and the subsequent global financial crisis' impact on commodity prices and demand. GDP fell nearly 2% in 2009. Unemployment remains high and outdated infrastructure has constrained growth. Daunting economic problems remain from the apartheid era - especially poverty, lack of economic empowerment among the disadvantaged groups, and a shortage of public transportation. South Africa's former economic policy was fiscally conservative, focusing on controlling inflation, and attaining a budget surplus. The current government largely follows the same prudent policies, but must contend with the impact of the global crisis and is facing growing pressure from special interest groups to use state-owned enterprises to deliver basic services to low-income areas and to increase job growth. More than a quarter of South Africa's population currently receives social grants.
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Tuesday, 06 December 2011

What's a good SA stock to invest in?

Johannesburg - Analysts believe the local market is currently trading at fair value, making stock picking more necessary. Three well-known analysts have told Fin24 in a snap survey that they prefer cheap stocks, shares that are defensive and those that have rand hedge qualities. 
Cheap stocks are those that have low price to earnings ratios. Defensive stocks are those that outperform even in tough economic times because their products are always in demand. The rand hedge shares perform well even when the local currency weakens. 
Rajay Ambekar, a portfolio manager at Investec Asset Management, picked two stocks, Anglo American [JSE:AGL] and MTN Group [JSE:MTN]. 
ANGLO AMERICAN
Ambekar says the global mining giant is already discounting a significant fall in metal prices. He believes the most relevant "valuation metric" is price to book and Anglo is trading at about 1.1 times its book value.
"Going back in its recent history, the only time it has traded at this level was 2002, which proved to be a great buying opportunity," Ambekar says. Book value is the value of an asset as it appears on the balance sheet.
MTN
Ambekar says the cellphone giant is a good example of a defensive rand hedge stock. "Its earnings are not cyclical, given that they are similar to a utility and approximately 70% of their earnings are derived from outside SA, making it a reasonable hedge against a weakening rand," Ambekar says. 
He believes mobile voice penetration in the company's non-South African operations is still relatively low. "We see an excellent opportunity for them to grow their mobile data revenue streams," he says. 
Alwyn van der Merwe, a director of investments at Sanlam Special Investments, picked Old Mutual [JSE:OML]Astral Foods [JSE:ARL] and Wilson Bayly Holmes - Ovcon [JSE:WBO]. 
OLD MUTUAL
Van der Merwe says the international wealth manager has a 40% discount to embedded value (EV), which is good by any standards. The EV of a life insurance company is the present value of future profits. 
ASTRAL
He says the food producer is in the right sector, which has done well in the recent past. "They are good quality and have held very well."
WBHO
He says the construction company has value because the sector has already been hit hard by the recession. "This means the margins have already been off," says Van der Merwe, implying the only way for the stock is upward. 
Steve Meintjes, a senior analyst at Imara SP Reid, picked Discovery Holdings [JSE:DSY] and DRDGOLD [JSE:DRD].
DISCOVERY
Meintjes says the health insurer has turned around all its problematic UK units. "Their earnings in the local operation have also been very positive." 
DRDGold
Meintjes says the fourth-biggest gold producer is good because it is in the gold mining business. "Gold is a special kind of commodity. It benefits from volatility," he says.
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Friday, 11 November 2011

E-commerce consulting with SurfRite South Africa

SurfRite is the South African e-commerce consulting enterprise, its services range from e-commerce to graphic designing for local clients. I was impressed by the graphics which were designed by this enterprise and decided to share this good news with everyone whose interest is in graphics and or small business owners who still want to expose their businesses to the ultimate corporate world filled with  giants.
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SA economy still mired in difficulty

Johannesburg – The South African economy is doing better than it did this time last year, but worse than in the first half of 2011. 
The Sake24 and BoE Private Clients provincial barometers for September, which measure economic activity in five provinces, showed declines everywhere over the past three months – although each province had different reasons for the reversals.
“We have to take care not to be overly negative about our economy but despite lower unemployment, the positive effect of lower interest rates and consumers' strong willingness to buy, we are now experiencing the most difficult period since the recession,” said Mike Schüssler, director at Economists.co.za and compiler of the barometers.
The winds of the foreign debt crisis are starting to blow towards the South African economy and there are signs of the business environment feeling the pressure, particularly on the growth side of the economy. 
“We can see it in the unexpected decline in the mining indices and this will ripple through the manufacturing and the construction sectors, which are both currently performing erratically.”
The Eastern Cape barometer tumbled the fastest of all five provinces. In the past three months it fell 5.6% and it was the only province that also declined year-on-year (y/y) – by 2.8%. The decline owed much to a contracting construction sector (33.1% down y/y).
The Western Cape (8.1% up y/y) and the Free State (9.3% up y/y) fared best among the provinces, but they too fell back over the past three months. In the Free State the construction index (31% down y/y) is looking wretched. 
In Gauteng (6.1% up y/y) the mining index began to slide and was 10.2% down on the comparative period last year. 
Schüssler said although economic stress factors are less oppressive than a year ago, growth is still not satisfactory, making the business environment challenging.
“Now it is more essential than ever for government to spend on the appropriate things, things that can stimulate growth, and for South African businesspeople to receive the proper support – not necessarily financial, but through the creation of a positive business environment." 
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